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Overview
As of 8 AM ET this morning, there remain two undecided seats in the U.S. Senate and sixteen undecided seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. In the Senate, the two undeclared/uncalled races are in the states of Arizona and Pennsylvania. In Arizona, Ruben Gallego (D) leads Kari Lake (R) by 2.2% (66,305) votes with 91% of the votes counted; while in Pennsylvania incumbent Senator Bob Casey (D) trails Dave McCormick (R) by .6% (40,145) votes with 98% of the votes counted.
The outcome of these two races will not determine which party controls the upper chamber of Congress, as the Republicans have already gained the majority. What is yet to be determined is whether their majority will be a majority of two or three seats – (53-47) or 52-48). And with respect to Senator Casey, whether or not he will be returning to Washington and maintaining a seat on the Senate Health, Education, Labor & Pensions Committee.
Meanwhile, in the U.S. House of Representatives, slow counting of ballots cast have resulted in ten remaining races yet to be decided AND the determination of which party will control the direction of the House. At this time Republicans need to win just two seats to retain the majority while the Democrats need to win nine to seize control.
Control of the House is being watched closely here in Washington and across the nation, as are the outcome of several individual House races that have implications with respect to the membership of key committees – including the Veterans’ Affairs Committee – with jurisdiction over higher education policy.
As we have since last Tuesday’s elections, CSPEN continued to track the outcome of these important results and share updates on the implications for higher education policy as a result. Please note that our tracking does not cover the outcome of all of the U.S. House of Representatives’ races, only those that were considered to be “key races” where the outcome of the election in the district was truly in play AND the individuals in those key races served on the three committees with jurisdiction over higher education policy.
Here is the latest update.
U.S. Senate Summary
Here is a tracking of the Senate races that have been determined and a repeat of the details of the two Senate races still pending.
Declared Races
- California – Adam Schiff (D) elected to the Senate
- Connecticut – Senator Chris Murphy (D) returns to the Senate
- Delaware – Lisa Blunt Rochester (D) elected to the Senate
- Florida – Senator Rick Scott (R) returns to the Senate
- Indiana – Jim Banks (R) elected to the Senate
- Maine – Senator Angus King (I) returns to the Senate
- Maryland – Angela Alsobrooks (D) elected to the Senate
- Massachusetts – Senator Elizabeth Warren (D) returns to the Senate
- Michigan – Elissa Slotkin elected to the Senate
- Minnesota – Senator Amy Klobuchar (D) returns to the Senate
- Mississippi – Senator Roger Wicker (R) returns to the Senate
- Missouri – Senator Josh Hawley (R) returns to the Senate
- Montana – Tim Sheehy (R) defeats Senator Jon Tester (Pick up of one seat for Republicans)
- Nebraska – Deb Fischer (R) elected to the Senate
- Nebraska – Pete Ricketts (R) elected to the Senate in Special Election
- Nevada – Senator Jacky Rosen (D) returns to the Senate
- New Jersey – Andy Kim (D) elected to the Senate
- New Mexico – Senator Martin Heinrich (D) returns to the Senate
- New York – Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D) returns to the Senate
- North Dakota – Senator Kevin Cramer (R) returns to the Senate
- Ohio – Bernie Moreno (R) defeats Senator Sherrod Brown (Pick up of one seat for Republicans)
- Rhode Island – Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D) returns to the Senate
- Tennessee – Senator Marsha Blackburn (R) returns to the Senate
- Texas – Senator Ted Cruz (R) returns to the Senate
- Utah – John Curtis (R) elected to the Senate
- Vermont – Bernard Sanders (I) returns to the Senate
- Virginia – Senator Tim Kaine (D) returns to the Senate
- West Virginia – Former WV Governor Jim Justice (R) elected to Senate (Pick up of one seat for Republicans)
- Wisconsin – Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) returns to Senate
- Wyoming – Senator John Barrasso (R) returns to the Senate
Open Races
- Arizona – Ruben Gallego (D) leads Kari Lake (R) with 91% of the votes counted. Likely Democratic win.
- Pennsylvania – Dave McCormick (R) leads Senator Bob Casey (D) with 98% of the votes counted. The race is moving toward a Republican win and the flipping of a fourth Senate seat as Dave McCormick has a 0.6% (40,145) vote lead. While not yet called, the Mr. McCormick’s lead has held throughout the weekend, and it seems likely that this race will be called – and a fourth Senate seat flipped – today or tomorrow.
U.S. House of Representatives Summary
As of the publication of this CSPEN Election Update, control of the House heading into the 119th Congress STILL has yet to be determined. Republicans hold a lead over the Democrats (216-209) based upon the 425 races which have been determined.
Of the ten remaining undeclared/called seats, three are likely Democratic victories and seven are “toss up” races – including seven uncalled seats of Representatives who serve on Committees influential to higher education policy. If the outcome of three of the seven key races CSPEN is monitoring hold, the Republicans will retain control of the House, while two currently held Republican seats could flip.
Bottom line, control of the lower-chamber is still yet to be determined, but it appears that the Republicans are likely to retain control by a narrow margin.
Declared Races
- Arizona – Rep. Eli Crane returns to the House
- California – Rep. Kevin Kiley returns to the House
- California – Rep. Mark Takano returns to the House
- Connecticut – Rep. Jahana Hayes returns to the House
- Indiana – Rep. Frank Mrvan returns to the House
- Iowa – Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks returns to the House
- New Hampshire – Rep. Chris Pappas returns to the House
- New York – John Mannion defeats Rep. Brandon Williams (Democratic pick up of House seat)
- Ohio – Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) returns to the House
- Ohio – Rep. Greg Landsman returns to the House
- Pennsylvania – Rob Bresnahan Jr. defeats Rep. Matt Cartwright (Republican pick up of House seat)
- Texas – Rep. Henry Cuellar returns to the House
- Virginia – Rep. Jen Kiggans returns to the House
- Wisconsin – Rep. Derrick Van Orden returns to the House
Open Races
- Arizona – Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) trails Kirsten Engel (D) by 0.6% with 80% of the votes counted. This lead has increased over the weekend.
- California – Rep. Josh Harder (D) leads Kevin Lincoln (R) by 2.4% with 61% of the votes counted. This lead has increased over the weekend.
- California – Rep. Mike Garcia (R) trails George Whitesides (D) by 1.8% with 84% of the votes counted. The lead in this race flipped over the weekend.
- California – Rep. Ken Calvert (R) leads Will Rollins by 2.8% with 76% of the votes counted. This lead has remained constant over the weekend.
- California – Rep. Michelle Steel (R) leads Derek Tran by 422% with 72% of the votes counted. This lead has decreased over the weekend.
- California – Rep. Mike Levin (D) leads Matt Gunderson by 4.3% with 80% of the votes counted. This lead has increased over the weekend.
- Oregon – Rep. Lori Chavez-Deremer (R) trails Janella Bynum by 2.8% with 88% of the votes counted. This lead has increased over the weekend.
What’s Next
CSPEN will continue to closely monitor seven key races we are tracking most closely, as well as the entire group of sixteen races in order to provide the community with a comprehensive summary of the election results throughout the week and will provide an in depth analysis on what this means for the final months of the 118th Congress, the start of the 119th Congress, and the change in Administration.
